Match Analysis
Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality
NKL
Lithuania
Ukmerges StekasHOME · -
102 : 652023.01.27 · 종료
Neptunas 2AWAY · -
RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL
HOME70.2%
DRAW0.0%
AWAY29.8%
MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM70 / 100
농구 MODEL V5.6
Sport-Specific Key Analysis
Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days
DATA QUALITY
100/100
AI PICK
HOME 73.1%
CAL
VALUE PICK
HOME
+70.2%
VALUE EDGE+70.2%
FAIR ODDS1.43
GRADEA
Ukmerges StekasAnalysis MetricsNeptunas 2
33.3%
Recent win rateHigher is better
66.7%
-11.08
Point MarginHigher is better
+2.42
164.42
Pace ProxyComparison metric
151.58
42.9%
Home / Away win rateHigher is better
83.3%
12.1일
Rest daysComparison metric
9.0일
CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2
Confidence Breakdown
This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.
70/100
MEDIUM
Data coverage20.0 / 20
Market / Odds4.5 / 15
Recent form10.0 / 10
Historical sample10.0 / 10
Model agreement3.6 / 15
Prediction separation15.0 / 15
Data freshness0.0 / 10
Sport-specific evidence4.9 / 5
Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin
Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches
League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches
Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -
OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -
Probability Breakdown
Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.
Recent Form
Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.
Ukmerges Stekas
W · 53-62L · 87-90L · 72-70L · 81-83L · 74-90
Neptunas 2
L · 73-72L · 53-62L · 97-68W · 86-84W · 76-63
Odds Movement History
Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY
HOMEDRAWAWAY
No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.
Head-to-Head (H2H)
| Date | Home | Results | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026.11.04 | Ukmerges Stekas | 64 : 87 | Neptunas 2 |
| 2026.02.20 | Neptunas 2 | 77 : 70 | Ukmerges Stekas |
| 2025.10.11 | Ukmerges Stekas | 70 : 91 | Neptunas 2 |
| 2025.02.21 | Ukmerges Stekas | 84 : 77 | Neptunas 2 |
| 2025.01.11 | Ukmerges Stekas | 91 : 74 | Neptunas 2 |
| 2024.10.12 | Neptunas 2 | 85 : 67 | Ukmerges Stekas |
| 2023.01.27 | Ukmerges Stekas | 102 : 65 | Neptunas 2 |
| 2023.01.14 | Neptunas 2 | 53 : 62 | Ukmerges Stekas |
| 2022.11.13 | Ukmerges Stekas | 83 : 71 | Neptunas 2 |