Match Analysis

Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality

← Matches by Time

Prva Liga Croatia · 14

KastelaHOME · -

83 : 772023.01.16 · 종료

HermesAWAY · -

RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL

HOME72.1%

DRAW0.0%

AWAY27.9%

MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM74 / 100

농구 MODEL V5.6

Sport-Specific Key Analysis

Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days

DATA QUALITY 97/100

AI PICK HOME 73.1% CAL

VALUE PICK HOME +72.1%

VALUE EDGE+72.1%

FAIR ODDS1.39

GRADEA

KastelaAnalysis MetricsHermes

58.3% Recent win rateHigher is better 33.3%

+5.42 Point MarginHigher is better -4.25

147.92 Pace ProxyComparison metric 157.25

66.7% Home / Away win rateHigher is better 0.0%

4.0일 Rest daysComparison metric 8.0일

CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2

Confidence Breakdown

This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.

74/100 MEDIUM

Data coverage19.6 / 20

Market / Odds4.5 / 15

Recent form10.0 / 10

Historical sample10.0 / 10

Model agreement13.2 / 15

Prediction separation15.0 / 15

Data freshness0.0 / 10

Sport-specific evidence4.9 / 5

Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin

Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches

League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches

Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -

OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -

Probability Breakdown

Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.

HOME

72.1%

DRAW

0.0%

AWAY

27.9%

Recent Form

Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.

Kastela

L · 87-76W · 85-83W · 67-54L · 85-82W · 92-77

Hermes

L · 56-80L · 77-101L · 84-65L · 78-90W · 79-89

Odds Movement History

Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY

HOMEDRAWAWAY

No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.

Head-to-Head (H2H)

Date	Home	Results	Away
2026.11.09	Kastela	74 : 73	Hermes
2025.03.23	Hermes	71 : 79	Kastela
2024.12.07	Kastela	127 : 64	Hermes
2024.02.05	Hermes	71 : 98	Kastela
2023.10.29	Kastela	80 : 86	Hermes
2023.01.16	Kastela	83 : 77	Hermes
2022.10.16	Hermes	60 : 89	Kastela