Match Analysis
Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality
Prva Liga
Croatia · 3
HermesHOME · -
60 : 892022.10.16 · 종료
KastelaAWAY · -
RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL
HOME35.2%
DRAW0.0%
AWAY64.8%
MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM70 / 100
농구 MODEL V5.6
Sport-Specific Key Analysis
Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days
DATA QUALITY
97/100
AI PICK
AWAY 57.9%
CAL
VALUE PICK
AWAY
+64.8%
VALUE EDGE+64.8%
FAIR ODDS1.54
GRADEA
HermesAnalysis MetricsKastela
33.3%
Recent win rateHigher is better
58.3%
-4.25
Point MarginHigher is better
+5.42
157.25
Pace ProxyComparison metric
147.92
50.0%
Home / Away win rateHigher is better
50.0%
6.9일
Rest daysComparison metric
7.0일
CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2
Confidence Breakdown
This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.
70/100
MEDIUM
Data coverage19.6 / 20
Market / Odds4.5 / 15
Recent form10.0 / 10
Historical sample10.0 / 10
Model agreement12.8 / 15
Prediction separation12.7 / 15
Data freshness0.0 / 10
Sport-specific evidence4.9 / 5
Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin
Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches
League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches
Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -
OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -
Probability Breakdown
Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.
Recent Form
Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.
Hermes
L · 82-59L · 104-58
Kastela
L · 80-83W · 61-75
Odds Movement History
Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY
HOMEDRAWAWAY
No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.
Head-to-Head (H2H)
| Date | Home | Results | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026.11.09 | Kastela | 74 : 73 | Hermes |
| 2025.03.23 | Hermes | 71 : 79 | Kastela |
| 2024.12.07 | Kastela | 127 : 64 | Hermes |
| 2024.02.05 | Hermes | 71 : 98 | Kastela |
| 2023.10.29 | Kastela | 80 : 86 | Hermes |
| 2023.01.16 | Kastela | 83 : 77 | Hermes |
| 2022.10.16 | Hermes | 60 : 89 | Kastela |