Match Analysis

Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality

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Prva Liga Croatia · 12

MarsoniaHOME · -

81 : 872023.12.24 · 종료

KastelaAWAY · -

RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL

HOME43.2%

DRAW0.0%

AWAY56.8%

MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM69 / 100

농구 MODEL V5.6

Sport-Specific Key Analysis

Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days

DATA QUALITY 91/100

AI PICK AWAY 52.5% CAL

VALUE PICK AWAY +56.8%

VALUE EDGE+56.8%

FAIR ODDS1.76

GRADEA

MarsoniaAnalysis MetricsKastela

41.7% Recent win rateHigher is better 58.3%

-1.00 Point MarginHigher is better +5.42

156.83 Pace ProxyComparison metric 147.92

66.7% Home / Away win rateHigher is better 50.0%

7.1일 Rest daysComparison metric 7.2일

CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2

Confidence Breakdown

This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.

69/100 MEDIUM

Data coverage18.5 / 20

Market / Odds4.5 / 15

Recent form10.0 / 10

Historical sample10.0 / 10

Model agreement14.0 / 15

Prediction separation5.8 / 15

Data freshness0.0 / 10

Sport-specific evidence4.9 / 5

Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin

Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches

League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches

Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -

OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -

Probability Breakdown

Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.

HOME

43.2%

DRAW

0.0%

AWAY

56.8%

Recent Form

Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.

Marsonia

L · 80-66W · 95-91L · 99-60W · 102-74L · 107-106

Kastela

W · 95-72L · 73-59W · 68-64L · 89-67W · 88-86

Odds Movement History

Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY

HOMEDRAWAWAY

No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.

Head-to-Head (H2H)

Date	Home	Results	Away
2025.02.23	Kastela	86 : 70	Marsonia
2024.11.11	Marsonia	64 : 88	Kastela
2024.03.28	Kastela	85 : 79	Marsonia
2023.12.24	Marsonia	81 : 87	Kastela