Match Analysis

Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality

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SEABL Australia

Melbourne TigersHOME · -

88 : 962016.05.01 · 종료

GeelongAWAY · -

RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL

HOME41.0%

DRAW0.0%

AWAY59.0%

MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM71 / 100

농구 MODEL V5.6

Sport-Specific Key Analysis

Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days

DATA QUALITY 95/100

AI PICK AWAY 52.9% CAL

VALUE PICK AWAY +59.0%

VALUE EDGE+59.0%

FAIR ODDS1.69

GRADEA

Melbourne TigersAnalysis MetricsGeelong

66.7% Recent win rateHigher is better 50.0%

+9.25 Point MarginHigher is better -2.00

167.75 Pace ProxyComparison metric 178.67

57.1% Home / Away win rateHigher is better 33.3%

7.0일 Rest daysComparison metric 0.8일

CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2

Confidence Breakdown

This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.

71/100 MEDIUM

Data coverage19.3 / 20

Market / Odds4.5 / 15

Recent form10.0 / 10

Historical sample10.0 / 10

Model agreement6.6 / 15

Prediction separation7.7 / 15

Data freshness0.0 / 10

Sport-specific evidence4.9 / 5

Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin

Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches

League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches

Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -

OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -

Probability Breakdown

Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.

HOME

41.0%

DRAW

0.0%

AWAY

59.0%

Recent Form

Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.

Melbourne Tigers

L · 73-76L · 73-63L · 67-79L · 101-53W · 70-68

Geelong

L · 87-85L · 78-74L · 74-97W · 73-90W · 87-60

Odds Movement History

Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY

HOMEDRAWAWAY

No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.

Head-to-Head (H2H)

Date	Home	Results	Away
2026.05.09	Geelong	90 : 97	Melbourne Tigers
2024.06.15	Geelong	72 : 66	Melbourne Tigers
2023.06.30	Geelong	71 : 72	Melbourne Tigers
2018.06.30	Geelong	78 : 76	Melbourne Tigers
2016.08.13	Geelong	115 : 93	Melbourne Tigers
2016.05.01	Melbourne Tigers	88 : 96	Geelong