Match Analysis

Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality

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NBL1 South Women Australia

Mt. Gambier WHOME · -

76 : 862023.07.21 · 종료

Geelong WAWAY · -

RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL

HOME62.7%

DRAW0.0%

AWAY37.3%

MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM72 / 100

농구 MODEL V5.6

Sport-Specific Key Analysis

Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days

DATA QUALITY 93/100

AI PICK HOME 57.8% CAL

VALUE PICK HOME +62.7%

VALUE EDGE+62.7%

FAIR ODDS1.59

GRADEA

Mt. Gambier WAnalysis MetricsGeelong W

75.0% Recent win rateHigher is better 66.7%

+11.83 Point MarginHigher is better +6.25

161.33 Pace ProxyComparison metric 152.92

80.0% Home / Away win rateHigher is better 40.0%

5.3일 Rest daysComparison metric 5.3일

CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2

Confidence Breakdown

This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.

72/100 MEDIUM

Data coverage18.9 / 20

Market / Odds4.5 / 15

Recent form10.0 / 10

Historical sample10.0 / 10

Model agreement14.0 / 15

Prediction separation10.9 / 15

Data freshness0.0 / 10

Sport-specific evidence4.9 / 5

Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin

Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches

League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches

Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -

OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -

Probability Breakdown

Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.

HOME

62.7%

DRAW

0.0%

AWAY

37.3%

Recent Form

Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.

Mt. Gambier W

W · 70-92W · 71-77W · 74-81W · 81-99W · 92-59

Geelong W

W · 76-72W · 84-79L · 72-71W · 69-78W · 84-56

Odds Movement History

Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY

HOMEDRAWAWAY

No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.

Head-to-Head (H2H)

Date	Home	Results	Away
2023.07.21	Mt. Gambier W	76 : 86	Geelong W
2023.06.23	Mt. Gambier W	94 : 59	Geelong W
2023.05.06	Geelong W	85 : 74	Mt. Gambier W
2022.07.31	Geelong W	72 : 73	Mt. Gambier W
2021.07.09	Geelong W	80 : 75	Mt. Gambier W