Match Analysis
Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality
NBL1 South
Australia
Melbourne TigersHOME · -
80 : 782024.05.18 · 종료
BallaratAWAY · -
RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL
HOME34.8%
DRAW0.0%
AWAY65.2%
MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM71 / 100
농구 MODEL V5.6
Sport-Specific Key Analysis
Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days
DATA QUALITY
99/100
AI PICK
AWAY 68.1%
CAL
VALUE PICK
AWAY
+65.2%
VALUE EDGE+65.2%
FAIR ODDS1.53
GRADEA
Melbourne TigersAnalysis MetricsBallarat
66.7%
Recent win rateHigher is better
25.0%
+9.25
Point MarginHigher is better
-8.58
167.75
Pace ProxyComparison metric
203.58
57.1%
Home / Away win rateHigher is better
28.6%
7.0일
Rest daysComparison metric
6.2일
CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2
Confidence Breakdown
This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.
71/100
MEDIUM
Data coverage19.9 / 20
Market / Odds4.5 / 15
Recent form10.0 / 10
Historical sample10.0 / 10
Model agreement4.9 / 15
Prediction separation13.0 / 15
Data freshness0.0 / 10
Sport-specific evidence4.9 / 5
Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin
Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches
League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches
Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -
OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -
Probability Breakdown
Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.
Recent Form
Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.
Melbourne Tigers
W · 74-84L · 81-63L · 85-71W · 89-81W · 79-89
Ballarat
W · 68-80W · 95-82W · 83-113W · 79-88L · 98-95
Odds Movement History
Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY
HOMEDRAWAWAY
No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.
Head-to-Head (H2H)
| Date | Home | Results | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026.05.16 | Ballarat | 82 : 108 | Melbourne Tigers |
| 2026.04.12 | Melbourne Tigers | 96 : 75 | Ballarat |
| 2024.06.29 | Ballarat | 87 : 81 | Melbourne Tigers |
| 2024.05.18 | Melbourne Tigers | 80 : 78 | Ballarat |
| 2023.06.04 | Melbourne Tigers | 106 : 88 | Ballarat |
| 2023.04.01 | Ballarat | 92 : 68 | Melbourne Tigers |
| 2016.07.31 | Ballarat | 118 : 87 | Melbourne Tigers |
| 2016.05.08 | Melbourne Tigers | 82 : 103 | Ballarat |