Match Analysis
Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality
NBL1 South
Australia
GeelongHOME · -
81 : 932024.05.04 · 종료
Mt GambierAWAY · -
RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL
HOME48.7%
DRAW0.0%
AWAY51.3%
MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM71 / 100
농구 MODEL V5.6
Sport-Specific Key Analysis
Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days
DATA QUALITY
100/100
AI PICK
AWAY 52.6%
CAL
VALUE PICK
AWAY
+51.3%
VALUE EDGE+51.3%
FAIR ODDS1.95
GRADEA
GeelongAnalysis MetricsMt Gambier
50.0%
Recent win rateHigher is better
16.7%
-2.00
Point MarginHigher is better
-8.58
178.67
Pace ProxyComparison metric
184.42
66.7%
Home / Away win rateHigher is better
25.0%
7.0일
Rest daysComparison metric
7.9일
CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2
Confidence Breakdown
This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.
71/100
MEDIUM
Data coverage20.0 / 20
Market / Odds4.5 / 15
Recent form10.0 / 10
Historical sample10.0 / 10
Model agreement9.1 / 15
Prediction separation1.1 / 15
Data freshness0.0 / 10
Sport-specific evidence4.9 / 5
Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin
Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches
League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches
Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -
OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -
Probability Breakdown
Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.
Recent Form
Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.
Geelong
L · 78-74W · 67-64L · 103-97L · 81-88W · 79-81
Mt Gambier
L · 83-96W · 91-84L · 94-105W · 93-87W · 63-67
Odds Movement History
Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY
HOMEDRAWAWAY
No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.
Head-to-Head (H2H)
| Date | Home | Results | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026.06.14 | Mt Gambier | 75 : 77 | Geelong |
| 2026.04.12 | Geelong | 89 : 86 | Mt Gambier |
| 2024.05.31 | Mt Gambier | 77 : 84 | Geelong |
| 2024.05.04 | Geelong | 81 : 93 | Mt Gambier |
| 2023.06.23 | Mt Gambier | 100 : 90 | Geelong |
| 2023.05.06 | Geelong | 106 : 105 | Mt Gambier |
| 2018.07.13 | Mt Gambier | 72 : 89 | Geelong |
| 2018.04.07 | Geelong | 72 : 62 | Mt Gambier |
| 2016.07.15 | Mt Gambier | 87 : 98 | Geelong |
| 2016.04.22 | Geelong | 74 : 97 | Mt Gambier |