Match Analysis

Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality

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NBL1 South Australia

Keilor ThunderHOME · -

103 : 972024.04.14 · 종료

GeelongAWAY · -

RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL

HOME39.7%

DRAW0.0%

AWAY60.3%

MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM69 / 100

농구 MODEL V5.6

Sport-Specific Key Analysis

Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days

DATA QUALITY 89/100

AI PICK AWAY 57.5% CAL

VALUE PICK AWAY +60.3%

VALUE EDGE+60.3%

FAIR ODDS1.66

GRADEA

Keilor ThunderAnalysis MetricsGeelong

75.0% Recent win rateHigher is better 50.0%

+8.25 Point MarginHigher is better -2.00

173.75 Pace ProxyComparison metric 178.67

80.0% Home / Away win rateHigher is better 33.3%

2.8일 Rest daysComparison metric 1.8일

CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2

Confidence Breakdown

This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.

69/100 MEDIUM

Data coverage18.1 / 20

Market / Odds4.5 / 15

Recent form10.0 / 10

Historical sample10.0 / 10

Model agreement6.1 / 15

Prediction separation8.8 / 15

Data freshness0.0 / 10

Sport-specific evidence4.8 / 5

Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin

Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches

League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches

Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -

OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -

Probability Breakdown

Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.

HOME

39.7%

DRAW

0.0%

AWAY

60.3%

Recent Form

Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.

Keilor Thunder

L · 108-81W · 106-110L · 115-98L · 98-63L · 116-85

Geelong

L · 81-88W · 79-81W · 72-93W · 116-85L · 104-107

Odds Movement History

Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY

HOMEDRAWAWAY

No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.

Head-to-Head (H2H)

Date	Home	Results	Away
2026.05.03	Keilor Thunder	91 : 75	Geelong
2024.04.14	Keilor Thunder	103 : 97	Geelong
2023.07.15	Geelong	116 : 85	Keilor Thunder