Match Analysis
Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality
NBL1 South
Australia
Mt GambierHOME · -
94 : 1052024.04.14 · 종료
BallaratAWAY · -
RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL
HOME72.9%
DRAW0.0%
AWAY27.1%
MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM66 / 100
농구 MODEL V5.6
Sport-Specific Key Analysis
Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days
DATA QUALITY
97/100
AI PICK
HOME 72.6%
CAL
VALUE PICK
HOME
+72.9%
VALUE EDGE+72.9%
FAIR ODDS1.37
GRADEB
Mt GambierAnalysis MetricsBallarat
16.7%
Recent win rateHigher is better
25.0%
-8.58
Point MarginHigher is better
-8.58
184.42
Pace ProxyComparison metric
203.58
12.5%
Home / Away win rateHigher is better
28.6%
0.8일
Rest daysComparison metric
7.0일
CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2
Confidence Breakdown
This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.
66/100
MEDIUM
Data coverage19.6 / 20
Market / Odds4.5 / 15
Recent form10.0 / 10
Historical sample10.0 / 10
Model agreement6.8 / 15
Prediction separation15.0 / 15
Data freshness0.0 / 10
Sport-specific evidence4.9 / 5
Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin
Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches
League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches
Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -
OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -
Probability Breakdown
Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.
Recent Form
Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.
Mt Gambier
W · 93-87W · 63-67W · 79-97L · 63-68L · 95-88
Ballarat
L · 79-81W · 97-86L · 99-93W · 105-87W · 104-107
Odds Movement History
Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY
HOMEDRAWAWAY
No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.
Head-to-Head (H2H)
| Date | Home | Results | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026.04.17 | Mt Gambier | 101 : 99 | Ballarat |
| 2024.04.14 | Mt Gambier | 94 : 105 | Ballarat |
| 2023.06.18 | Ballarat | 85 : 105 | Mt Gambier |
| 2018.06.23 | Ballarat | 78 : 88 | Mt Gambier |
| 2016.08.06 | Ballarat | 89 : 90 | Mt Gambier |
| 2016.07.29 | Mt Gambier | 91 : 79 | Ballarat |
| 2015.06.21 | Ballarat | 73 : 91 | Mt Gambier |