Match Analysis
Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality
NBL1 South
Australia
BallaratHOME · -
79 : 812024.04.07 · 종료
GeelongAWAY · -
RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL
HOME46.8%
DRAW0.0%
AWAY53.2%
MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM73 / 100
농구 MODEL V5.6
Sport-Specific Key Analysis
Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days
DATA QUALITY
100/100
AI PICK
AWAY 52.6%
CAL
VALUE PICK
AWAY
+53.2%
VALUE EDGE+53.2%
FAIR ODDS1.88
GRADEA
BallaratAnalysis MetricsGeelong
25.0%
Recent win rateHigher is better
50.0%
-8.58
Point MarginHigher is better
-2.00
203.58
Pace ProxyComparison metric
178.67
20.0%
Home / Away win rateHigher is better
33.3%
3.8일
Rest daysComparison metric
14.0일
CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2
Confidence Breakdown
This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.
73/100
MEDIUM
Data coverage20.0 / 20
Market / Odds4.5 / 15
Recent form10.0 / 10
Historical sample10.0 / 10
Model agreement14.8 / 15
Prediction separation2.7 / 15
Data freshness0.0 / 10
Sport-specific evidence4.9 / 5
Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin
Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches
League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches
Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -
OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -
Probability Breakdown
Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.
Recent Form
Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.
Ballarat
W · 97-86L · 99-93W · 105-87W · 104-107W · 82-68
Geelong
W · 72-93W · 116-85L · 104-107L · 75-68L · 71-72
Odds Movement History
Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY
HOMEDRAWAWAY
No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.
Head-to-Head (H2H)
| Date | Home | Results | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026.06.20 | Geelong | 78 : 68 | Ballarat |
| 2026.05.30 | Ballarat | 101 : 82 | Geelong |
| 2024.04.07 | Ballarat | 79 : 81 | Geelong |
| 2023.07.08 | Geelong | 104 : 107 | Ballarat |
| 2018.08.04 | Ballarat | 65 : 90 | Geelong |
| 2018.04.28 | Ballarat | 97 : 88 | Geelong |
| 2016.07.02 | Ballarat | 78 : 91 | Geelong |
| 2015.07.08 | Ballarat | 77 : 93 | Geelong |
| 2015.04.11 | Geelong | 87 : 89 | Ballarat |