Match Analysis

Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality

← Matches by Time

NBL1 South Australia

GeelongHOME · -

116 : 852023.07.15 · 종료

Keilor ThunderAWAY · -

RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL

HOME70.8%

DRAW0.0%

AWAY29.2%

MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM68 / 100

농구 MODEL V5.6

Sport-Specific Key Analysis

Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days

DATA QUALITY 89/100

AI PICK HOME 73.0% CAL

VALUE PICK HOME +70.8%

VALUE EDGE+70.8%

FAIR ODDS1.41

GRADEB

GeelongAnalysis MetricsKeilor Thunder

50.0% Recent win rateHigher is better 75.0%

-2.00 Point MarginHigher is better +8.25

178.67 Pace ProxyComparison metric 173.75

66.7% Home / Away win rateHigher is better 71.4%

7.0일 Rest daysComparison metric 7.0일

CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2

Confidence Breakdown

This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.

68/100 MEDIUM

Data coverage18.1 / 20

Market / Odds4.5 / 15

Recent form10.0 / 10

Historical sample10.0 / 10

Model agreement5.1 / 15

Prediction separation15.0 / 15

Data freshness0.0 / 10

Sport-specific evidence4.8 / 5

Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin

Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches

League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches

Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -

OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -

Probability Breakdown

Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.

HOME

70.8%

DRAW

0.0%

AWAY

29.2%

Recent Form

Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.

Geelong

L · 104-107L · 75-68L · 71-72W · 96-81L · 100-90

Keilor Thunder

L · 97-89W · 77-92L · 90-105L · 88-89L · 89-91

Odds Movement History

Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY

HOMEDRAWAWAY

No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.

Head-to-Head (H2H)

Date	Home	Results	Away
2026.05.03	Keilor Thunder	91 : 75	Geelong
2024.04.14	Keilor Thunder	103 : 97	Geelong
2023.07.15	Geelong	116 : 85	Keilor Thunder