Match Analysis
Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality
NBL1 South
Australia
NW TasmaniaHOME · -
72 : 982023.05.13 · 종료
GeelongAWAY · -
RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL
HOME39.8%
DRAW0.0%
AWAY60.2%
MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM69 / 100
농구 MODEL V5.6
Sport-Specific Key Analysis
Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days
DATA QUALITY
99/100
AI PICK
AWAY 57.8%
CAL
VALUE PICK
AWAY
+60.2%
VALUE EDGE+60.2%
FAIR ODDS1.66
GRADEA
NW TasmaniaAnalysis MetricsGeelong
50.0%
Recent win rateHigher is better
50.0%
-5.08
Point MarginHigher is better
-2.00
169.75
Pace ProxyComparison metric
178.67
66.7%
Home / Away win rateHigher is better
33.3%
6.2일
Rest daysComparison metric
1.0일
CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2
Confidence Breakdown
This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.
69/100
MEDIUM
Data coverage19.9 / 20
Market / Odds4.5 / 15
Recent form10.0 / 10
Historical sample10.0 / 10
Model agreement8.4 / 15
Prediction separation8.7 / 15
Data freshness0.0 / 10
Sport-specific evidence4.9 / 5
Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin
Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches
League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches
Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -
OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -
Probability Breakdown
Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.
Recent Form
Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.
NW Tasmania
L · 91-89W · 79-111L · 69-84L · 84-94L · 62-100
Geelong
W · 64-79W · 82-93W · 106-105W · 79-73L · 90-63
Odds Movement History
Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY
HOMEDRAWAWAY
No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.
Head-to-Head (H2H)
| Date | Home | Results | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024.05.25 | Geelong | 81 : 89 | NW Tasmania |
| 2023.05.13 | NW Tasmania | 72 : 98 | Geelong |
| 2018.07.28 | Geelong | 96 : 74 | NW Tasmania |
| 2018.05.05 | NW Tasmania | 96 : 78 | Geelong |
| 2016.08.06 | Geelong | 93 : 74 | NW Tasmania |
| 2016.07.23 | NW Tasmania | 72 : 104 | Geelong |
| 2015.07.05 | Geelong | 86 : 76 | NW Tasmania |
| 2015.04.18 | NW Tasmania | 81 : 75 | Geelong |