Match Analysis
Sport-specific models · Market probabilities · Performance · Odds value · Data quality
NBL1 South
Australia
GeelongHOME · -
106 : 1052023.05.06 · 종료
Mt GambierAWAY · -
RAW MODEL PROBABILITY RAW · FINAL MODEL
HOME50.1%
DRAW0.0%
AWAY49.9%
MODEL CONFIDENCE MEDIUM73 / 100
농구 MODEL V5.6
Sport-Specific Key Analysis
Point margin · Pace · Recent win rate · Home court · Rest days
DATA QUALITY
100/100
AI PICK
HOME 52.5%
CAL
VALUE PICK
HOME
+50.1%
VALUE EDGE+50.1%
FAIR ODDS2.00
GRADEA
GeelongAnalysis MetricsMt Gambier
50.0%
Recent win rateHigher is better
16.7%
-2.00
Point MarginHigher is better
-8.58
178.67
Pace ProxyComparison metric
184.42
66.7%
Home / Away win rateHigher is better
25.0%
7.0일
Rest daysComparison metric
6.9일
CONFIDENCE ENGINE v7.2
Confidence Breakdown
This measures the reliability of the prediction, not the probability of winning.
73/100
MEDIUM
Data coverage20.0 / 20
Market / Odds4.5 / 15
Recent form10.0 / 10
Historical sample10.0 / 10
Model agreement13.6 / 15
Prediction separation0.1 / 15
Data freshness0.0 / 10
Sport-specific evidence4.9 / 5
Market Fair Probability · HOME0.0%Current 1X2 odds adjusted for bookmaker margin
Actual Home Wins at Similar Odds-Sample 0 matches
League Home Wins with Similar Patterns-Sample 0 matches
Home Wins by Odds Movement Pattern-Current movement -
OPEN → NOW- → -Odds updated -
Probability Breakdown
Compare market-implied odds with historical results separately.
Recent Form
Based on the five most recent completed matches stored in the database.
Geelong
W · 79-73L · 90-63L · 87-92L · 85-96L · 97-95
Mt Gambier
W · 92-79W · 106-82W · 94-103W · 97-80W · 94-104
Odds Movement History
Percentage change from opening odds, using the same scale for HOME / DRAW / AWAY
HOMEDRAWAWAY
No odds snapshots yet. Data will appear once odds are collected.
Head-to-Head (H2H)
| Date | Home | Results | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026.06.14 | Mt Gambier | 75 : 77 | Geelong |
| 2026.04.12 | Geelong | 89 : 86 | Mt Gambier |
| 2024.05.31 | Mt Gambier | 77 : 84 | Geelong |
| 2024.05.04 | Geelong | 81 : 93 | Mt Gambier |
| 2023.06.23 | Mt Gambier | 100 : 90 | Geelong |
| 2023.05.06 | Geelong | 106 : 105 | Mt Gambier |
| 2018.07.13 | Mt Gambier | 72 : 89 | Geelong |
| 2018.04.07 | Geelong | 72 : 62 | Mt Gambier |
| 2016.07.15 | Mt Gambier | 87 : 98 | Geelong |
| 2016.04.22 | Geelong | 74 : 97 | Mt Gambier |